The Dow Jones Average, the S&P 500 and the technology-rich NASDAQ, however, are all trading around new highs which suggest that both institutional and individual appetites for stocks continue to be strong. There are many risks that are always present that could derail this broad-based market enthusiasm. I think Alan Greenspan deserves mention once again for his famous labeling of a previous period of unbridled enthusiasm. I believe he called it “Irrational Exuberance.”
Here’s my risk list:
1. Failure to negotiate and pass TAX REFORM (a 2 party problem)
2. Failure to FIX or REPLACE and fund our healthcare system
3. GEOPOLITICAL, North Korea and the source of JIHAD Terrorism
4. Opioid distribution and usage
5. Shortage of skilled Labor that will limit GDP growth. A smart immigration program that will recruit immigrants that embrace our values meet our labor needs would be a win for all.
6. The ongoing investigations into the Russian Involvement in our election process and thorough vetting of the Uranium sale to The Russians during Hillary’s tenure as Secretary of State.
It looks like we will have some movement (good or bad) shortly on tax reform. I believe failure here could trigger a market correction. Despite the President’s desire to battle his political opponents in public, it doesn’t do much to get a bipartisan effort on anything. There will be plenty of pressure from the Republican party to get something done. The party thinkers understand that midterms are coming soon and will be the ultimate test for the GOP going forward.
I don’t doubt we have the ability to solve these serious problems but the time to do things should be apparent. If the current leadership can’t do it, it’s time we found some who will.