May's Forecast

Well, folks:

The month of May has been off to a volatile start. However, our economy is not the problem. Going into the New Year most major research on our economy suggested a slowing of growth in the U.S. On May 10th for the first quarter of 2019,


Examining The Data

Well, folks:

Economic conditions and economic performance during the last quarter has resembled the velocity and stability of a roller coaster. At the beginning of January 2019, most economic forecasters didn’t foresee much in rate increases for the year. In fact, possible rate cuts and flat earnings growth seemed to dominate thinking for 2020.  However, the 1st quarter of 2019 delivered a broad-based performance surprise for the record books. In fact, for the S& P 500, it was the best rebound since 2009 *. The rebound appeared to be fueled by more of P/E expansion ( confidence) than earnings growth as the rate of growth has actually been slowing.

The Market Under Scrutinity

Well, folks:

The current economic expansion continues to slow. By way of comparison since 1960, we have registered six economic expansions which have averaged 27 months in duration. Averages, of course, are made up of different returns earned in different years divided by the number of those years. 

After The Shutdown

Well folks as you might imagine a government shutdown leaves many industries without the daily data to run their business properly. Our Government, like our commerce, is data dependent too. Patching together the data we can see residential real estate has slowed somewhat. For the fourth quarter of 2018, the segment grew at a 4.1% year over year rate which is the slowest pace since 2011.

Growing Prosperity Through Trade

Well, folks:

If you think that the trade issues between the U.S. and China are one of our most pressing global concerns, you are in the majority. If you think you aren’t getting the complete story or picture on the issues from the print press or broadcasters you are with the majority again.


2018 Market Returns

Hi, Folks:  


By now it’s widely acknowledged by most investors today that they are relieved 2018 is behind them. They should be as it was a very rough year for both equities and fixed income.


Large Factors to Consider

Well, folks:

Leading up to the holidays we have experienced some pretty big price adjustments in stock prices. How big,  how about 19.3% between September 28th and December 24th! Most investors are asking what caused the sudden correction? For starters, the market was in retrospect a little expensive selling at a 4% premium to its 25-year average.  On that note, there are enough investors out there that are constantly watching these benchmark measures and use them as signals to buy and sell.

Market Behavior and "Probable Cause"

The too frequent bouts of market volatility are certainly painful and in some instances have been brought on by bad corporate and key individual behavior. I doubt that volatility will ever be eliminated from the marketplace but the bad behavior that’s driving the extreme market moves of late should be identified and punished severely. Our capital markets that have financed the most powerful economy in the world are worth protecting and maintaining for the generations to follow.

Ideas to Consider Before the Next Downdraft

Well folks, volatility has certainly dominated our stock markets for the last two months. Unlike the measles, the pundits aren’t sure if we will experience it again soon. Rather than guess, a review of our defensive strategies for more volatility makes sense today. Just to clear up several concepts before we start, volatility happens when valuations are too high or too low. What is too high or low is not always easy to recognize at the onset, but we all seem to be somewhat startled when we find ourselves caught in such a period. Being always prepared for a correction in advance is just a smart strategy that can diminish the shock value and potential portfolio decline during negative periods with excessive volatility.

The Best Rally Since '82

Hi, Folks:


Yesterday’s market surge came on the heels of the President’s announcement that he was willing to work on initiatives with the Democrats to keep the economy growing. It certainly sounded good coming from him but “we will see”! He does love to negotiate, so the Democrats wish list on reducing the cost of prescription drugs, infrastructure build-out and making improvements in healthcare could be in for the best efforts from both parties. In some sense, the selloff’s timing establishing a lower market cost entry point, combined with the President’s show of commitment, could act to improve investor’s confidence.