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Well, folks, I am sure this week, if you have younger children at home, you were busy sorting out costumes and making sure the candy was in ample supply for the crush of trick or treaters. Sounds all pretty normal and comforting! As my prep duties at home were completed early, I started to research the potential past correlation of impeachment and market performance. Fortunately, we don’t have an abundance of home-grown events to evaluate, however some of our close trading countries had some data to contribute.

Our first impeachment attempt was levied against President Johnson who had taken office after the assassination of President Lincoln.  President Johnson, soon after he replaced President Lincoln, was charged with violating the Tenure of Officer Act for removing Secretary of War Edward Stanton. Johnson was acquitted three days after Stanton’s acquittal. Watching too much evening political coverage on President Trump’s current political standing certainly has interested me in the possibility of impeachment.

More in our time was the break-in event at the Democratic National Committee offices at the Watergate Office Complex in 1972. The spotlight was eventually focused on President Nixon and indeed it was quite the battle. Once the burglars were identified, a narrative surfaced that placed many of Nixon’s close ties at the organization and in the direction of the break-in. It was believed that the mission was to spy on the Democratic party and sabotage elements of their proposed political plans. As the story and facts started to be understood, the White House counsel was fired and the FBI director resigned for destroying evidence. It was becoming clear that more people were aware that possibly efforts to cover up any inquiry on the Watergate break-in were coming from the top. Washington was still pursuing at this time a full legislative agenda.  The Bretton Woods Agreement, which was a fixed exchange rate system established after WWII, converted to a floating rate system in March of 1973 (Nixon Initiative).

The following events all produced meaningful market moves:

WATERGATE:

Spying events first reported in 1972

End of the fixed rate exchange system 1973

Televised hearings in 1973

Nixon resigns December 1974

THE CLINTON /LEWINSKI SCANDAL:

Major drop in world equities early 1999

News of scandal breaks 1998, Clinton confession 1998

Clinton acquittal, US Equities and Bonds recover January 1999

Click below to read an interesting article by Washington-based journalist Elizabeth Drew entitled, "Will Trump Be Removed from Office."

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-impeachment-removal-from-office-real-possibility-by-elizabeth-drew-2019-10

Hello, Folks: 

It is always good to start a story with something positive for all. Progress on the trade agreement is great place to start. Last week's reported news on trade announced plenty of good news coming in for the agriculture sector. I am not sure that all the details have been nailed down, but...

Discussion on Tariffs...

For the S&P 500, year to date performance through August 30 has been 16.74 percent this year. This is a great performance no matter how we look at it. Investors, really all of us tend to extrapolate past great performance into the coming months. It is in my opinion that the results will temper somewhat going forward as we have to face some pretty strong headwinds.

Well,  Folks: 

This President is exceptionally good at holding the media’s attention on many subjects. This time around it seems to be we are stuck in the tariff trade war fiasco. The % numbers on tariffs and the dollar size of the items are certainly large numbers worthy of our attention.

Well, folks: 

There is plenty of new data that could influence the future direction the market takes. An inverted yield curve has been accepted as one of the better indicators of slowdowns/recessions in the making. Of the five recent periods of “meaningful inversion” (enough days to be considered credible by the Wall Street pundits) three delivered recessions, one false alarm and this one in 2019 is noted as too soon to tell. The current indications have been enough to push

Well, folks:

There were plenty of reasons for the volatile month of May. The big fears were centered on the likelihood of slowing growth in all major worldwide economies. This fear immediately pushed down interest rates meaningfully in the US and produced an inverted yield curve for better than two weeks. Following quickly, business confidence dropped, exports showed signs of weakening and corporate investment also showed signs of retreating. Failure to reach a trade agreement with China and the threat of an immigration based tariff imposition on Mexico, left the US markets shaken.

Well, folks:

The month of May has been off to a volatile start. However, our economy is not the problem. Going into the New Year most major research on our economy suggested a slowing of growth in the U.S. On May 10th for the first quarter of 2019,

Well, folks:

Economic conditions and economic performance during the last quarter has resembled the velocity and stability of a roller coaster. At the beginning of January 2019, most economic forecasters didn’t foresee much in rate increases for the year. In fact, possible rate cuts and flat earnings growth seemed to dominate thinking for 2020.  However, the 1st quarter of 2019 delivered a broad-based performance surprise for the record books. In fact, for the S& P 500, it was the best rebound since 2009 *. The rebound appeared to be fueled by more of P/E expansion ( confidence) than earnings growth as the rate of growth has actually been slowing.