The current economic expansion continues to slow. By way of comparison since 1960, we have registered six economic expansions which have averaged 27 months in duration. Averages, of course, are made up of different returns earned in different years divided by the number of those years. Although the financial industry uses these numbers in estimates for potential future returns, it is not as predictable as many of the summings of the parts forecasts seem to imply. Looking at 2018 as a whole only 3 sectors were positive.
Yet all S&P 500 sectors were positive for the 1st quarter of 2019. Trade Issues, Global Energy policies and Consumer fatigue after several strong months could be a damper on growth. Brad McMillan, Commonwealth’s Chief Investment Officer, does a commendable job of looking at both stock market risk and the pace of growth in the economy. Take the time to read as it is fresh of the press.
I believe that moves in the quality and duration of bond portfolios continue to make sense in this environment. Please follow the below link for more information.